The Cancellation of the Rwanda Scheme: What Next?

Aug 30, 2024

The Rwanda Plan: A Controversial Deterrent  

The ‘Rwanda Plan,’ proposed by the Conservative government in 2022, aimed to deter asylum seekers from attempting to cross the English Channel in small boats. Under the plan, asylum seekers who travelled to the UK via irregular routes would be relocated to Rwanda, where their asylum claims would be processed.  If asylum seekers’ claims were successful, they would be granted permission to remain in Rwanda, but would be unable to return to the UK. Crossing the Channel by small boat, a route which has surged in popularity over the last four years, can be life-threatening. Data collected by the Missing Migrants Project suggests that over 260 people died in the English Channel from 2014 to June 2024. Therefore, preventing small boat Channel crossings has been highlighted as a priority of both the former Conservative government and the current Labour government. 

However, the Rwanda Plan attracted criticism as a punitive scheme that breached the UK’s obligations under international law. Barring asylum seekers from entering the UK because of their method of arrival infringes the Refugee Convention (1951), which prohibits discriminating against asylum seekers for entering states irregularly. Furthermore, the UK Supreme Court ruled that asylum seekers in Rwanda are at risk of refoulment to their country of origin, which violates the European Convention on Human Rights (1950). Therefore, the Labour government cancelled the Rwanda Plan shortly after entering office in July 2024, raising questions about the policies it will pursue to prevent asylum seekers from undertaking dangerous journeys across the English Channel. 

Border Security Command: Labour’s New Strategy 

The Labour government currently aims to combat small boat crossings by establishing a Border Security Command to police human smuggling gangs. The Border Security Command would integrate the capabilities of the Home Office, Police, and Security Service with new counterterrorism powers. On 7th July 2024, the Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, announced that recruitment for the head of Border Security Command would begin shortly and that a bill was being drafted to grant the new organisation specific powers. Further details on how this force will operate alongside other initiatives are yet to be revealed.   

The Dublin Agreement: A Unified Front Against Channel Crossings 

Some propose that rejoining the EU Dublin Agreement, which the UK left in 2020, could prevent small boat crossings. The agreement determines which state is responsible for processing individual asylum claims. When an asylum seeker has no familial ties in signatory states, the Dublin Agreement facilitates their return to the first EU country they arrived in, making small Channel crossings futile. 51 of the 299 asylum seekers recorded crossing the English Channel in 2018 were returned to France under the Dublin Agreement. The return of only about 1/6 of small boat arrivals in 2018 suggests that the Dublin Agreement’s bureaucracy would struggle to handle the recent surge in small boat arrivals to the UK. Therefore, rejoining the Dublin Agreement would be unlikely to resolve the problem of small boat Channel crossings. However, it would be a move in the right direction.

Safe Passage Visa : A Humane Solution? 

NGOs have proposed the establishment of a Safe Passage Visa scheme to stop small boat crossings. A Safe Passage Visa would permit asylum seekers to travel to the UK, preventing them from undertaking dangerous journeys to avoid detection. A joint report by the Public and Commercial Services Union and Care4Calais suggests modelling the visa scheme after the one established for Ukrainian refugees in 2022.   It notes that due to the Ukraine scheme, no Ukrainian refugees have been reported crossing the Channel in small boats. While the report acknowledges that small boat crossings by people denied a visa may continue, this concern is undermined by data from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford. They recorded that from 2018 to March 2024, 93% of small boat arrivals sought asylum in the UK. If asylum seekers do not meet the requirements for a Safe Passage Visa, they would also not meet the conditions for asylum. Therefore, most asylum seekers denied a Safe Passage Visa would likely be deterred from crossing the Channel by the certainty of having their asylum claims rejected. A more prevalent concern is that a Safe Passage Visa scheme could be weaponised by governments to impede asylum claimants from travelling to the UK. To benefit asylum seekers, a Safe Passage Visa scheme must be combined with the political will to accommodate refugees. 

ID Cards: A Contested Tool 

Another solution that has been proposed to reduce the number of small boat Channel crossings is the introduction of ID cards in the UK. The former Home Secretary, Lord Blunkett, argues that having to present an ID card to gain employment and receive benefits and non-urgent care in the NHS would disincentive people from undertaking small boat Channel crossings. He highlights that border crossings in lorries fell by 2/3 after an ID card pilot scheme begun in 2009. However, as the vast majority of people who cross the English Channel make an asylum claim upon their arrival to the UK, ID cards would be unlikely to significantly reduce the number of small boat Channel crossings. 

A Turning Point for UK Asylum Policy? 

The impact of the cancellation of the Rwanda plan on asylum seekers is yet to be seen. As no asylum seekers were sent to Rwanda to have their asylum claims processed, the practical implications of its cancellation are limited. The increase in the numbers of asylum seekers making small boat Channel crossings directly after the Rwanda Plan was announced in April 2022 highlights its failure as a deterrence measure. The Labour government’s proposal to establish a Border Security Command as a replacement for the Rwanda plan suggests it is focused on increasing the policing of irregular routes. Without accompanying meaningful policy change, this approach is likely to result in new dangerous routes emerging. The Migration Observatory partially attributes the dramatic rise in small boat arrivals to the crackdown on other irregular routes. However, the respite offered by the cancellation of the Rwanda plan will hopefully enable policymakers to reflect on long-term solutions to the issue of small boat Channel crossings. Furthermore, the change in government could reset the public discourse on migration and asylum. Keir Starmer described the Rwanda policy as ‘gesture politics’, suggesting that he may attempt to detoxify the asylum debate, a necessary step to promoting lasting change. Therefore, this decision could lead to a more constructive public discourse on asylum and foster the development of safe routes to the UK for asylum seekers. 

Impact of the Rwanda Plan Cancellation on the work of the ACAA

The ACAA supports asylum seekers and refugees’ integration into the UK by offering ESOL classes, housing and benefits support, legal advice and social events. Asylum seekers who were threatened with deportation to Rwanda reported symptoms of psychological distress to caseworkers at the ACAA. Many of them feared that they would be refouled to Afghanistan and other countries of origin from Rwanda, where they face threats to their lives. The cancellation of the Rwanda plan is likely to bring relief to these asylum seekers, allowing them to settle into the UK while their asylum claims are processed. This change will enable the ACAA to help these individuals to rebuild their lives.

At the Afghanistan and Central Asian Association in West London, a diverse coalition of asylum seekers, refugees, British-Afghan community members, and charity workers united to voice their opposition to the Rwanda Bill…

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